Calculated Optimism: Africa's Growing Young Population, Demographic Dividends, and the African Renaissance (Part 1)*

by Wilson Idahosa Aiwuyor

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Africa’s population has exceeded 1 billion, and is projected to top 2 billion by 2050. In addition to having the highest population growth rate, Africa is one of the regions with the highest proportion of young population. According to United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 60% of Africa’s population is less than 25 years old. Only 5% of Africa’s population falls within the age range of 60 to 80 years old, compared with, say, Europe whose figure for the same age group is 26%. Consequently, while Africa’s population doubles by 2050, Europe’s, which is currently over 700 million, will shrink to 691 million. What are the economic implications of Africa’s population dynamic? Is there any correlation between Africa’s burgeoning young population and the realization of the African Renaissance – which is the vision to transform the continent into a prosperous, stable, and integrated

continent?

The purpose of this article is to show that Africa could reap enormous demographic dividends from its young and fast growing population if over the next decade leaders on the continent embrace good governance and implement adequate social policies targeting improvement in education, health care, infrastructure, and women empowerment.

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Some analysts have expressed concern over Africa’s population trend, claiming that the continent is overpopulated. They are, understandably, concerned about the strains of Africa’s population on the environment and natural resources. They caution against the effects of overpopulation on poverty reduction effort and on the continent’s overall capacity to sustain its people. But Africa’s population dynamic must be put in simplified statistical perspective in relation to other regions of the world in order to answer questions about sustainability, poverty and overpopulation.

Is Africa Really Overpopulated?

The 2010 World Population Data Sheet reveals that Africa has a population density of 34 people per square kilometer. With a population density of 170 people per square kilometer, Western Europe is five times more densely populated than Africa. The European Union, on the other hand, has a population density of 115 people per square kilometre, making it more than three times as densely populated as Africa. Yet, unlike Africa, neither Western Europe nor the EU bloc is considered overpopulated in popular discourse.

With a total area of over 30.3 million square kilometers, Africa has more than enough space to accommodate the geographical areas of China, India, US, Western Europe, and Argentina combined – whose total areas is about 29.9million square kilometers. Meanwhile, Africa’s present population is less than half the 3.6 billion people in China, India, US, Argentina, and Western Europe combined. In essence, it is counter-intuitive to regard Africa as overpopulated when other regions that have more than twice Africa’s population within a smaller area are not considered overpopulated.

Between Overpopulation and Sustainability

Africa has only 15% of global population but possesses 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land. The continent holds 20% of the world’s natural resources. If Africa’s area alone can accommodate China, India, US, Western Europe, and Argentina, whose combined 3.6 billion population is more than half the world population, then the continent should be able to sustain a population that would be about 2.1 billion in 40 years.

Thus, the focus should be on good governance and responsible leadership. With good governance and adequate social policy, Africa can build the capacity to properly manage its resources, develop its human capacity, and maintain a sustainable population growth. There are enormous benefits to be accrued to the continent if African governments invest heavily in education, health care, infrastructure development, youth development and women empowerment. In fact, education and female empowerment alone can significantly regulate Africa’s population within sustainable proportion.

*This is the first of a two-part article. Read Part 2 here